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Domestic polyester industry will usher in the best golden age?


Until now, the domestic polyester market is still hot, stir fry atmosphere is still in. On Thursday, held in Suzhou "treasure" PTA theme salon, "oversold", "zero inventory", tight specifications sales unpopular, polyester market "good voice" is still. The "good voice" of the polyester market is constantly "looking at the recent rise in the market, especially FDY, which has risen over a thousand yuan a month." Market participants say, just like in real estate, the opening day is the new price, but also from the slow, even the goods are not grab. It is said that will continue to rise, too headstrong! You don't have the goods too expensive, good! Even now in the polyester market customer consultation mode also changed. "How much money from the original, can not be less sour now" prices did not rise, I first hit the past! "However, the market crazy more than that, the terminal started -- leadership meeting - the price! Price futures higher - price, environmental protection, limited production price. After the "hot house heat", a wave of "polyester heat" was set off in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. In the face of the current rally rainbow polyester market, many industry insiders said that the performance is far exceeding market expectations, after all, before 2016, the polyester market is far from the current "hot". The reporter learned that, from 2012, the domestic polyester market has been relatively low, the majority of the industry has been relatively pessimistic about the market. Chen Bi, the new product development and sales manager of Hengyi chemical fiber, told reporters that since 2012, the profit of the slicing was very low, and it was basically at the edge of profit and loss. In 2015, the profit of the slicing was only more than 200 dollars, which is a period of saving money. Until the second half of 2016, after G20, with the increase of market orders, the polyester market has gradually begun to turn better. Similarly, Shanghai east Wu Jiuying Cci Capital Ltd to charge Wu Wenhai also have the same feeling. In 2004, he entered the chemical fiber industry for five years in the chemical fiber industry. "We have been doing FDY before, not a few years are profitable, the cause of non profit is that the upstream raw materials are too strong." In Wu Wenhai's view, now the downstream has already ushered in the golden age. The upstream is becoming more and more surplus, and the benefit of the downstream polyester is improving. We should say that the gross margin space is expanding. Now PTA and polyester companies, compared to PTA basically no profit, mainly by polyester profit. "At the beginning of the year, when they were dealing with friends who made clothing or clothing exports, they often reflected that orders for the lower reaches of this year were the best year since 2014." Wang Guangqian, an analyst at Soochow futures, said that so far there are orders. It's now off season in theory, but now the market orders are still down."Hot" market interpretation behind the interview reporter learned that the reason why the polyester market will be hot, the main source is downstream demand. The better the downstream demand is, the higher the price of polyester will be. "From tracking the number of listed companies, we can find that the whole garment industry began to store and shop in 2011 until the end of 2015. In fact, this closed shop corresponds to the end of the apparel industry. Wang Guangqian, a futures analyst at Soochow, said that in the past 2015-2016 years, the whole garment industry is in the stage of structural optimization, and the toxic assets and excess capacity of the entire downstream textile and clothing have been effectively cleared. Especially in 2016, a relatively thorough clearing has been achieved. For the whole downstream textile and garment industry, the operation ecosystem has improved significantly, and for upstream polyester links, it must be a great advantage. And talking about the influencing factors of polyester sales, the participants think that it is mainly about three aspects. One is related to the relevant policies of the state and local governments. According to Chen Bi introduced last year, Wuzhen Internet Conference, the road limit line, the factory closed, last year at the G20 summit, the whole area of Hangzhou chemical fiber industry can be said to shut up about half a month, this caused a great impact on the relationship between supply and demand of the textile industry, including the convening of the Xiamen meeting of BRIC this year, all the Fujian dyeing factory the Quanzhou area basically shut down 90%, thus causing the polyester sales unpopular. In the near future, a weaving limited in Wujiang area, all the looms should be recycled, the whole loom should be reduced about 100 thousand units. Why FDY will sell better? It's because the market is worried that there will be no equipment to do these products after the old machine knockout. It will cause market supply and demand tension and have great influence on the gray fabric supply chain. First, we must first place orders, and create a market's "grab goods" atmosphere. The second is the impact of environmental factors. It is understood that from 9 in June 25th, the printing and dyeing enterprises in Wujiang area implemented the shutdown measures, which undoubtedly brought some panic to the downstream manufacturers. Everyone is robbing the goods, causing the current source of goods so nervous. There is also the impact of emergencies on the polyester industry. For example, in April 6, 2015 Zhangzhou Xianglu PX explosion incident triggered a subsequent PTA rise, causing the entire textile industry turmoil. "The market in 2015 has been further down, but in April 6th after the occurrence of unexpected events, all effect of propaganda, and speculation, resulting in sales of the downstream polyester hot, plus the explosion on April 21st Nanjing Yangzi Petrochemical, increase the pet market unpopular." Chen Biru said.

The golden age of polyester needs to be rationally treated by many market participants. Now, for a boss of a downstream weaving enterprise, he no longer sees whether the market is good or not, but whether he has goods in hand or not. "Everyone is taking, I also want to take, you don't take me, nor do you." It is such a psychological market every time to find a gimmick to stir up a wave of market, the market has a centralized purchase. It is not rational for the current polyester market. "All sales are realized by hype, not about the impact of supply and demand, but on the market speculation, causing downstream panic, to grab goods and grab goods to increase sales in the market. This market doesn't know when it will last." It is understood that in the existing market speculation, on the one hand, Wujiang's limited production, all the gray cloth orders have been transferred a lot, in Wujiang area, all gray cloth is basically not processed locally in Wujiang, but to the Shaoxing side processing. On the other hand, Ditan is the thinnest of all the fabrics. Most of the obsolete looms are made of this kind of Ditan, most of which is FDY. So, now face a problem, we are worried about the fabric back to buy, so we want to first wave of centralized purchasing fabric, but faced with the situation of Wujiang printing and dyeing treatment, so we put the cloth in Wujiang to do these bulk purchases of taffeta, procurement. After sent to Shaoxing, Huzhou where by this processing, taffeta fabrics without what inventory basically.

7, August is the traditional off-season, but now it has become a weak season. About how long the downstream can be "fire", Chen Bi thinks that from the downstream market, after July, the market of FDY basically went almost the same. DTY will start in mid July. Before July, DTY will also go up with the order in the second half of the year. "In the short term, the basic market of polyester downstream in 9, October will not fade where to go, if the light is also to be around November." "In the medium term, the downstream of polyester will be stronger in the next two or three years than in the upper reaches." Wu Wenhai said that since joining WTO, the whole PTA polyester industry chain started from downstream expansion, and the upstream supply bottleneck has been stuck for many years, until this year, it began to ease. In his view, the upper reaches of the two years are in excess, the lower concentration in the lower reaches is increasing, and a golden age is gradually ushered in. "Two POY capacity accounts for half of the whole industry. The fall in March and April this year is very obvious. The price of a large factory is very small. Small factories have cleared up stocks at a glance, so as a result, there is no stock in the whole small factory in April and May, which is an effect brought by the improvement of market concentration. "As long as you have an order and can sell it, Maori is sure to have a guarantee." In terms of the supply and demand pattern, Wu Wenhai believes that "the lower reaches of the lower reaches" may be maintained for two to three years. "From this point of view, now is not a good time to do more PTA. It is a good investment opportunity to do more downstream factories and stretch silk and do more factory stock with elastic yarn as main business."

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